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The combo ladder
The same legs, priced one at a time up to six. Nothing changes between the rows except how many legs are stacked — so the two columns that move are the only two that matter: your probability of winning, and the share the book keeps. Start at the top row: that is a single bet, at its real price. Everything below it is what each extra leg costs you, in tonight's actual prices rather than a lecture.
| Legs | Leg added | Chance it hits | Quoted payout | Fair payout | Book keeps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan · hits over 0.5 | 73.2%loses about 0 of 1 | 1.48x | 1.37x | 6.3% |
| 2 | Cam Schlittler · K under 6.5 | 52.6%loses about 1 of 2 | 3.18x | 1.90x | 12.0% |
Read the last two columns together. The quoted payout grows with every leg, which is the part that feels good — but the fair payout grows faster, and the gap between them is the book's cut. Going from 1 legs to 2 takes your chance of winning from 73.2% to 52.6% while the hold climbs from 6.3% to 12.0%.
Cross-game legs only — same-game combinations are refused here because their correlation is not modelled, and multiplying a dependence away would make these numbers wrong. Model-backed legs only; slate: 2026-10-05. Build your own shapes in the The Lab.
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