The Lab

Describe what you want. We'll build it and show the math.

0 of 4 official lineups confirmed. Confirmed hitters are FINAL; every other hitter remains PRELIMINARY. Latest official-card change 5:08 AM ET.

3 legs, safest 2 legs, biggest disagreements 12 disagreements, all different games

Understood: 12 legs, biggest model-vs-market disagreements, one leg per game (round-robin list — cross-game legs are independent, which is what a round robin's math needs)

Ranked by model-vs-market disagreement · one leg per game, model-backed positive-disagreement legs only

2 of 12 — only 2 of tonight's 2games have a model-backed leg where our number beats the book's. Padding with weaker legs or doubling a game would break the independence a round robin needs, so the list stays short instead.

1Cam SchlittlerNYY vs TBK under 6.5 @ +115 [Fanatics]model 71.8% vs 43.7% +28.1pt

2Gavin WilliamsCLE vs CWSK under 7.5 @ +100 [FanDuel]model 67.5% vs 47.1% +20.4pt

Each leg is one game, so any round-robin combination of them multiplies independent probabilities — the one structural claim this list makes. Disagreements shown with the math; never "best bets".

Numbers like these, graded in public every night.

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